and for that worthy back-stage
Voodoo Kitchen assignment, 

that we all be brewing demonade,
with a toast at the end of the evening!

What qualities would we like
to imbue in our brew…?

“a sip of demonade
makes one wittier and calmer,”
for instance

proffers the capacity for
“Deep delving investigative jauntiness, 
and so on…with a kind heart!”

“effective dedication”
(replaces “long hard struggle”)

We welcome returning alumnus,
Scorpio ally, strategist, Hal Bahr

(last week’s radio guest.
Tonight we go for
more better audio quality…
in trickster we trust!),

Aspiration:  
May to and fro banter open
 the circle into a spiral,
allowing for easier team chiming,

demonade ingredients,

Mythic News Headlines,

Bumper Stickers

************************************************

Sometimes Prison masquerades as freedom…
Let’s invite Trickster to un-snooker us all!

We are in a field of revelatory de-conditioning,
thus tis available “to be agents of principles
rather than subject to laws…”

20 20 20

the degrees of 

Jupiter, Neptune Venus

 in 2020

So what the hell,
following all clues in the
scavenger hunt,
we invoke 

The High Priestess
and the Fool and Judgement

Venus – a labor demonstration

Jupiter – a relay race

Neptune-Girl w Lamb

Barack Obama’s rising sign is now ours,
18° Aquarius, Weary Fire-Responders
finally contain a dangerous force..

Dion Fortune reminds us:
Steady Calm Confident Dedication
to the Desirable Out-come…

as democracy,
and fate of Earth be in the balance…

So let us add “deliberate” to our repertoire
of responses… (from Libra, and 2 verbs libare,
to liberate, librare to balance. To be deliberate
is to be in a state of liberating balance.)

(things we may, tease forth
into accessible pertinence:)

Sun trines Chiron…all Mentoring help welcome…

forms Grand trine in Fire with MC, 

using fire to contain fire…

Mars coming up to dance 3 x’s
squaring the Capricorn Cabal of Goats

Lions & Rams & Goats

Moon quintile Pluto

Sun quintiles Neptune –
that worthy Leo-Pisces conversation…
not performance – magic,
or at-least performance in service
to collective magic…

Saturn & Venus both quintile Chiron,
a bi-quintile betwixt…

Pluto + Jupiter (themes of last week,
re the Pluto-Jupiter conjunction in Gemini,
1890, 91, 92) – 

Strategic cultural advantage
goes to those cultivation the power
as Symbols and Story….

p.s.

a complex, long, intriguing worthy article
(written in April)
(and thanks to ally, Addi J, 
who sent to me):

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/04/taleb-the-only-man-who-has-a-clue.html

” any and all virus modeling going forward
should be taken with an ocean full of salt.” 

Fortunately With Neptune speaking to us,
we have an Ocean and salt.

“Taleb is also, and more interesting for this essay,
distinguished professor of risk engineering at
New York University’s Tandon School of Engineering.”

Risk engineering!
(Uranus squares the Sun)

“Key terminology you’ll find, and need, is “asymmetry”,
“precautionary principle” (“first do no harm”, which is close
to the Hippocratic Oath’s “to abstain from doing harm”), and
perhaps also “convexity” (a term from the finance world
that depicts a relation between interest rates and bond duration).”

(re latter, no idea)

Guidance for approaching any Big Mystery

Slowing down mobility…

Aztec cosmology, tells us that
this World is born of and will die
of “busy-ness,” “motion.”

Long Vision:

“General Precautionary Principle : The general (non-naive)
precautionary principle delineates conditions where actions
must be taken to reduce risk of ruin, and traditional cost-benefit
analyses must not be used. These are ruin problems where, over time,
exposure to tail events leads to a certain eventual extinction.
While there is a very high probability for humanity surviving
a single such event, over time, there is eventually zero probability
of surviving repeated exposures to such events.”

(Maybe, but worth putting
on the table to sober up.)

“Historically based estimates of spreading rates for pandemics in general,
and for the current one in particular, underestimate the rate of spread
because of the rapid increases in transportation connectivity over
recent years. This means that expectations of the extent of harm are
underestimates both because events are inherently fat tailed, and because
the tail is becoming fatter as connectivity increases. Global connectivity is
at an all-time high, with China one of the most globally connected societies.
Fundamentally, viral contagion events depend on the interaction of agents
in physical space, and with the forward-looking uncertainty that novel
outbreaks necessarily carry, reducing connectivity temporarily to slow
flows of potentially contagious individuals is the only approach
that is robust against misestimations in the properties
of a virus or other pathogen.

contact tracing and monitoring are rapidly (computationally)
overwhelmed in the face of mass infection, and thus also cannot be
relied upon to stop a pandemic. Multiscale population approaches
including drastically pruning contact networks using collective
boundaries and social behavior change, and community self-monitoring,
are essential. Together, these observations lead to the necessity of a
precautionary approach to current and potential pandemic outbreaks
that must include constraining mobility patterns in the early stages of
an outbreak, especially when little is known about the
true parameters of the pathogen.

 

It will cost something to reduce mobility in the short term, but to
fail do so will eventually cost everything—if not from this event, then
one in the future. Outbreaks are inevitable, but an appropriately
precautionary response can mitigate systemic risk to the globe at large.
But policy- and decision-makers must act swiftly and avoid the fallacy
that to have an appropriate respect for uncertainty in the face of
possible irreversible catastrophe amounts to “paranoia,” or the
converse a belief that nothing can be done.

Asymmetric risk

“Something related, before I forget: I’ve been following Nassim Taleb’s opinions on genetically modified organisms (GMO) for a long time, because in that field, too, he applies the same ground rules that he does vis-a-vis the virus. First, precautionary principle (do no harm), and in the wake of that, asymmetry (asymmetric risk). In “Monsanto’s GMO field”, just like with deadly viruses, the risks when something goes wrong are devastating. If you get that wrong, you’re literally talking potential extinction.And that makes any “normal” cost/benefit analysis obsolete. If you get the preliminary risk assessment wrong, the consequences are so far-reaching that your only realistic option is extreme carefulness (precautionary principle). Ergo: you don’t allow GMO crops until you’re 100% sure they have zero negative impacts on human health. What Monsanto does is use “scientists” who declare that no negative effect has been found so far, so it must be okay.Taleb asserts that that is not science, but “scientism”. It is obvious that the negative effects can take decades to show, but if they do, things have probably become irreversible (all corn contains GMO traces). In other words, the burden of proof MUST lie with Monsanto; you can’t demand that everybody else proves their GMO crops are harmful. On the one hand, Monsanto gets to make a profit, while on the other billions of human lives can get lost. That’s the asymmetry Taleb is talking about.”